2011 Academy Award Predictions

I have a hard time understanding the amount of fascination the public and the media has with the Oscars. Maybe it's just the media actually, because I really don't know how seriously the casual movie fans take the Oscars. Super serious film buffs don't take the Oscars too seriously because they're always a bit more conservative than we'd like, but I don't think many casual filmgoers do either because the Academy's choices are still too obscure and serious for them as well. I could explore this issue in like a 5000 word article probably, but instead I'll just rant a bit about it below.

(Click "Read More" for more on this and my predictions for this year)




The Oscars are in a weird place, no one should care about them but they do, and that's why I don't understand why they get so much publicity when the Awards come around. Maybe I'm being naive, maybe it's really the media that publicizes the Oscars so much and their publicity does not accurately reflect the interests of the people, but I really doubt that. The media does overly exaggerate some things, and the Oscars are probably included, but they still wouldn't cover an event people don't care too much about.

One hypothesis is that people care about the Oscars because they want to see celebrities in a live setting all together. I don't know about that. Names like Jennifer Aniston, Tom Cruise, or Adam Sandler are not names you see nominated very often. I'm sure some people watch the Oscars because maybe a couple of their favorite actors are nominated, but I don't think they would care so much about them if only a couple people they like were nominated.

So why in the world do people care about the Oscars? In terms of why super serious film buffs care, I think it's simple. It gives them a chance to talk about movies, more specifically argue about movies. The Oscars provide debate and conversation. Sure they could theoretically do that anytime, but having a certain time of year to do that is nice I guess.

When it comes to the regular movie going public I think they care probably because of the legacy the Oscars have. The words "Oscar-nominated" or "Oscar-winning" have a feeling of legitimacy to them, and it kind of etches that name into the history books. Even if the Oscars are a sham, people watch them, and that gives them historic legitimacy. People want to know who will be remembered and what movies will be remembered. Now the question of how the Oscars got legitimacy if people don't legitimately care too much about them is a more complicated question and one that probably merits some study of history and how they were received by film fans and by the public when they started out.

Personally, I respect the Oscars, just because I like to stay positive. They don't always nominate my favorite movies and I have tons of qualms with how they work and what they do, but they don't nominated movies just because they make a lot of money and people like them. They try to take movies seriously and I can live with that. I don't dismiss the Oscars, but I don't give them too much importance, I feel like some people are way too obsessed about them, and some people totally dismiss them without thinking about the benefits they may bring to a movie or a director. The main reason I care about them is because when a certain director or actor gets nominated or wins it affects their status in the industry a lot, and as someone who has an interest in film business and film art, it's really interesting how someone can have so much more freedom after winning an Oscar. It's a good indication as to who is big right now in the industry and who people will be paying attention to. But if I was only interested in film as an art? I probably would care much less about the Oscars. The show has huge consequences for the film business, but it doesn't do much from an artistic standpoint.

Anyways, I usually try and predict the Oscars just because it's one of the few ways to make watching the actual show fun, and I've also found out that I'm actually pretty good at predicting them. I like being right so I will continue predicting, and because I like it when people know I'm right I'll post them here so I can brag all I want without anybody doubting my predicting powers.

Side-note 1: that picture above is a very recent piece Banksy did in LA. He apparently may or may not be at the Oscars on Sunday.

Side-note 2: this whole post was inspired by something I saw on the front page of Yahoo! today that said "How to get an Oscar-winning body," which made absolutely no sense to me. I really doubt the Academy gave an Oscar to Judi Dench because she had a great body.

Side-note 3: nobody should take this post all that seriously. It's mostly just me thinking out loud, and not meant to be my official thoughts or anything. If I actually tried and spent some time on this I could have gotten much more in depth and maybe even found an answer to the questions in this post.

Anyways...


2011 Academy Award Predictions:

Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
-CORRECT- He wins for A Single Man and The King's Speech

Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
-CORRECT-

Actor in a Supporting Role:  Christian Bale (The Fighter)
-CORRECT-

Actress in a Supporting Role: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
-CORRECT- She said the F word

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
-CORRECT-

Art Direction: The King's Speech (this category just got a lot steamier after this)
-WRONG- It went to Alice in Wonderland

Cinematography: True Grit
-WRONG- But I'm glad me being wrong helped Inception get an Oscar

Costume Design: The King's Speech
-WRONG- I was seriously soooo close to picking Alice in Wonderland for this one. Damn.

Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
- WRONG- This was the biggest risk I took and it didn't pay off. Tom Hooper wins for The King's Speech

Documentary (Feature): Inside Job
- CORRECT- I guess we'll never find out what Banksy would have done if he had won.

Documentary (Short): Poster Girl
- WRONG-

Film Editing: The Social Network
-CORRECT-

Foreign Language Film: Incendies (Canada)
- WRONG- I have no idea why I picked this movie to win instead of the Golden Globe winner In a Better World

Makeup: The Wolfman
- CORRECT-

Music (Original Score): The Social Network
- CORRECT-

Music (Original Song): "If I Rise" (127 Hours)
- WRONG- The winner is the one song in Toy Story 3 I don't remember

Short Film (Animated): Day & Night
- WRONG-

Short Film (Live Action): Na Wewe
-WRONG-

Sound Editing: Inception
-CORRECT-

Sound Mixing: The Social Network
-WRONG- Don't know why I didn't pick Inception for both of these

Visual Effects: Inception
-CORRECT-

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Social Network
-CORRECT-

Writing (Original Screenplay): The King's Speech
-CORRECT-

Best Picture: The King's Speech
-CORRECT- Not too surprising, it's not the best movie of the year, but it was good so it's cool.


Final tally: 14/24
That's more than half which is pretty good, though I felt I could have done better.